The killing of Bin Laden – why now?

[President Obama announced the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad in Pakistan by a US Navy SEALS team on 1 May, 2011]

It is all advertisement, after all.

How popular was bin Laden’s version of Islam?

Apparently, not very. Ten years ago, I argued that Al Qaeda and its affiliates were practically cornered by peaceful encroachment of the Free World, so they tried to provoke a clash of worlds by carrying out a series of spectacular and daring suicide attacks in a hope of provoking the US to act in a way that could be seen as blatantly anti-Islam. [US Naval Institute Proceedings, Dec. 2001, pp.50-51] When George W. Bush launched his War on Saddam, seeing the imperial manner in which he made the decision to go for it and overrode the wills of the public and the world, I feared that al-Qaeda almost won.

But it didn’t matter. No matter how many blunders the US has committed (thus the crime of the Bush administration is chiefly that of prolonging ‘War on Terror’), the fundamental landscape of the Islamic world was unchanged. As the second decade of the twenty-first century began, it exploded literally on Day 1, starting in the great ancient city of Alexandria with some sectarian violence. Within a month, the move towards a real change started in Cairo, and, as of now, the whole of the Middle East is up in flames. It’s not an American invasion or European colonialism. It is their own, home grown dictators and corrupt elite that are making their lives of ordinary Muslims a misery. Some of the elite used anti-Western rhetoric as a smokescreen for their mismanagement and tyranny. Others propped up their regime by acting as the only safeguard against al-Qaeda. Neither tactic will work any more.

The Muslims have now begun a new process of change by venting their pent-up anger at their own leaders. Tunisia and Egypt led the way with their spontaneous uprisings; unfortunately in Libya, the popular revolts are being turned into some sort of ancient, tribal war (the same problem the Carthaginians and the Romans had to deal with 2,000 years ago!). What is different this time is that the Libyans themselves asked for Western intervention. They knew better than blaming the West for their troubles. If anything, they are saying, why don’t you use your military power to help us for a change? The Muslims are so much wiser these days.

It is no wonder that this younger generation of Muslims, wised up by the Internet, will not listen to messages propagated by the ilk of al-Qaeda, who had been preaching to bomb foreigners instead of going to useless elections. But now they’ve discovered a more effective alternative: taking to the streets, rather than wasting their lives in something as prosaic as terrorism. Al-Qaeda-ism, as a protest movement, lost its appeal.

After the 911 attacks, the image of NYC engulfed by fire and smoke, and American citizens fleeing in terror helped inspire some new recruits. By being able to frighten the most powerful country, you can feel powerful. Such sense of power is intoxicating and gave some young Muslims who had nothing else to do something to devote their lives. What is terrorism to us is an adventure of lifetime to them.

But after a while, it is just a bunch of amateurish, ineffectual lone terrorists who were still fighting according to the spirit of al-Qaeda. The jihad has degenerated into a series of local, sectarian violence within the Islamic world, resulting in deaths and suffering of more Muslims than infidels. Some small, isolated jihadist groups might carry on their struggle against the West, but personally, when I fly, I’m more worried about mechanical failure or a bad weather than a bomb in the pants of a terrorist.

So what does al-Qaeda do? Bin Laden is described as charismatic [cf. numerous comments by experts who showed up on CNN,] but in reality, he was getting old and irrelevant. There is only one thing left for al-Qaeda: his martyrdom.

Thus I have this nagging feeling. This could be yet another ploy on the part of al-Qaeda trying to get attention. Did they allow US forces to kill Osama? Did they deliberately let him die a martyr’s death? If so and if this great piece of PR worked, they still might get a new lease of life, carrying out new attacks with fresh recruits bent on vengeance.

However, if they could keep up with the rest of the world, especially the Arab world, they might find it more productive not to use terror tactics at all. They’d been using violence to get noticed, and now that we are all aware of their presence and purposes, they can use violence in a more measured way, while their mainstream activities can be focused on waging a political warfare within Western societies, planting seeds of hatred and political dissent in the minds of young Muslims who live in immigrant communities. By design or accident, this is the latest trend in any case and we have to expect this to get more intense.

So, we are now entering a new phase of the al-Qaeda affairs. The killing of Osama bin Laden is in this sense symbolic. It’s the end of the beginning, if not the beginning of the end. The battleground is now on the arena of politics, rather than that of terrorism. It reminds me of Hitler transforming himself from a street thug to a politician. The enemy is elusive, and we cannot really hit them with the Predator or Navy SEALS teams in future. The hope is that more rational and intelligent political movements in the Islamic world will take hold and that they will use non-violent means to redress their grievances. The challenge is still ahead, as the problem of Palestine and social divide within the Islamic world are as deep as ever.  In the meantime, oBama can concentrate on using the killing of oSama for his re-election campaign.

Crete and Tohoku

I'm sure I'm not alone thinking of ancient Crete and the Minoan civilization, when watching news footages from the Tohoku Earthquake in Japan. Until the 3.11 quake hit, I was always a little sceptical about the CGI version of the tsunami that destroyed the Minoan civilization in c.15th century BCE.

Here is one such image:

The Minoan civilization is generally considered as the first European civilization which flourished in the Bronze Age. Most likely an offshoot of booming economy and maritime commerce in the Mediterranean, the Minoans were like the first colony created by the advanced economy that developed in the Levant. The myth of Zeus' abduction of Europa from Tyre loosely reflects its background. This is also the time of Egypt's decline, and other centres of human activities were thriving in its place along the Med coastal regions.

However, this civilization was destroyed quite suddenly when the volcanic island of Thera or Santrini erupted, blowing up the inner half of the island itself and causing a massive tsunami, which hit Crete within a few hours.

The Minoans were maritime people and lived along the coast. They stood no chance in face of a gigantic tidal wave of 10-20 m or probably even higher. Above is our modern recreation of this tsunami by CGI: a massive, black wall of water racing towards you at 100mph or something like that.

I keep seeing these CGI recreations on History Channel, Discovery and NatGeographic Channel, BBC, C4, etc, and was always thinking, well, surely the real thing must have looked very differently.

Now, here is the real one, that hit Japan on 3.11:

Sure, it is less dramatic, as what we see here is more like the ocean swelling by 10+ meters and simply ran over the sea wall built as anti-tsunami defence. In fact, the most dramatic moments were probably not filmed because people didn't start using their cameras until they finally realised that this was really real. This particular footage seems to have started just a second before the wall was breached.

Luckily for Japan, this tsunami didn't hit the centre of Japanese economy. While this was the worst human tragedy this nation suffered in its post-WW2 history, at least the capital of Japan escaped significant physical damage. Though Tohoku is by no means unimportant, as it produces food for Tokyo and many factories are also located, the rest of Japan is capable of keeping Japanese economy going. In contrast, in case of Crete, the Minoan civilization wasn't big enough geographically for the survivors to generate enough economy and industry for a speedy recovery. The Minoans indeed never recovered and the centre of the eastern Mediterranean civilization moved north, to the Greek mainland.

I have a feeling that if Tohoku had been a separate country, it wd have been destroyed for good. Now an odd thought: Japanese media keep saying that the last time a tsunami of this scale hit this region was 1,000 years ago. That's when Tohoku was conquered by the Japanese. Did they take advantage of an earthquake to subjugate the natives? Well, if I managed to find something in my research, I'd get back to you.

The Quake: previously

Recently, working on the quake of 1923 that hit Tokyo area in Japan on September 1, I’ve been reading some documents compiled by local governing bodies shortly after the quake. One document dealing with the problem of Korean labourers was obviously written in the wake of frenzied attacks on the Koreans by frightened people in the immediate aftermath of the quake. Those who had lost their homes, livelihoods and loved ones simply believed in unsubstantiated rumours about a large number of Korean workers attacking, robbing and raping people and decided to defend themselves. It is a fair guess that the social research divison of the City of Osaka Council investigated into causes of such atrocity (it is said that up to 2,000 might have been killed) examining actual conditions those Koreans were in.

The document is amazing in its frankness. They do not hesitate to call those Korean workers ‘under-cultured’ or ‘of low intelligence’ as a matter of fact way. No, they add, we’re not saying that Koreans in general are stupid. It’s just that it is the rustic types from the poorest parts of rural, agricultural communities of Korea that wish to come to Japan in search of better material life. We sympathise with them. 

But imagine there had been Wikileaks back then, leaking some excerpts from this one. An Egyptian or Libyan style uprising would have followed in Korea in protest, which had just been colonized by Japan. So politically incorrect and racist by our standard, but, one must wonder, was this the kind of language normally used in the early twentieth century?

At best, the document is patronising. It does point out that the widely held prejudice against the Koreans by the Japanese public was unjust and racist. Instead, people should feel sorry for the plight of the Koreans, whose background, oppressed by abusive landowners back home, fostered their rather coarse existence.

The document was written in support of a policy to promote assimilation of the Korean migrants. One researcher said to them something like, ‘You’ve got a crappy job. You’re descriminated against and treated like a slave. Your have no family here. Do you want to go home?’ Obviously one Korean answered, ‘I’ve got a crappy job back home and treated harshly anyway. If so, I’d be better off in this brightly-lit city of Osaka.’ Also the researchers noted that they were too busy and tired even to resent Japan’s colonization of their country. If they could be taught Japanese ways, improve their Japanese and integrate into Japanese society as fully respected members, then, both the good Japanese public and the poor Koreans could live happily side-by-side.

What to make of this document? Maybe they were trying to say that there was nothing racist or imperialist about the policy of assimilation, which was really about pragmatic solution to one problem Japan’s high policy produced internally. (They even state that what they recommended was the most compassionate course.) 

This document was published, ironically, when anti-Japanese (together with anti-Chinese and anti-Korean, but especially anti-Japanese) protests were flaring up in the US in 1924. A law limiting immigration from Asia to the state of California was passed. While the Japanese newspapers angrily denounced it as a racist insult, Japanese diplomats admitted in private that they could not complain as they were treating the Koreans in exactly the same way.

Such was the world before WW2. The consolation this time, in the wake of the 3.11 quake in Tohoku, Japan, is that no panic or violence followed. Or, were we lucky that the quake hit sparsely populated regions? (Even so, more than 20,000 have been killed. This tells you how catastrophic this latest quake really was!) 

The 3.11 Quake

I live in Kanagawa, Japan, which is, about 200-300 miles from the epicentre of the quake of March 11th. This is how it went where I live.

Friday, March 11th, 2011:

1330 (JST) ish: I noticed some birds flying in an unusual pattern overhead. Wondering what they were up to, it still didn't even occur to me that something really bad might be around the corner.

1445: my flat has an automated quake alarm system, which went off. A voice message says there will be a quake soon.

1448: turned on the TV to get info. There was a huge earthquake in Tohoku (literally means northeast or north and east) District at 1446. Multiple tsunami warnings issued. Then electricity was cut.

1449: felt the first jolt, then sustained, slow swaying, which lasted for several minutes. I think there were two separate waves or more. The whole building and the ground felt like moving, almost like in a small ship in the middle of a storm. Not a violent shaking you'd get near the epicentre. Mercifully, no damage in my flat. Just when I thought it stopped, it started shaking again. I realised that this quake occurred somewhere far away but must be really, really big.

The whole afternoon: the blackout continues. I was getting some info from my mobile phone, but soon the network was down. I got some e-mails from my friends but cannot make any phone calls. Fearing for water supply, we filled up PET bottles, bowls and anything that could be filled with water. After the sunset it was pitched dark all over town, there is nothing to do but sit tight and wait.

2035 (approx.): power came back on. Finally watched the TV to learn the devastation caused by the tsunami waves. The damage from the quake itself was modest but the tsunami utterly destroyed coastal towns and communities. Began to receive more phone calls and e-mails from concerned friends.

2035-0100: we were glued to the TV, shocked by the scale of devastation. At this point, the death toll was still 40+. Of course the Japanese TV tend to be cautious, only reporting figures that had been confirmed. Electricity in my area was on now but all public transport was shut down. No train, no bus, nothing, except now precious taxis. Consequently, in and around Tokyo, tens of thousands of people were stranded in offices and wherever they were. Many were forced to walk home for hours. Some had not choice but to stay in their offices, school gyms and even train stations. I could hear commotion coming from a nearby train station. I suppose the station staff were trying to help the stranded people. Overnight, they emptied most convenience marts.

Saturday, March 12th

0700-0900: we were lucky to be at home at the time of the quake. At least we had a good night's sleep. Well, actually interrupted many times as there were numerous aftershocks, setting off the alarm system each time. By 0900 in the morning of the 13th, some trains began running. Desperate people go home finally.

0900-1130: I saw some shops open and rushed there to buy food. the timing of the quake was bad, as we usually shop in Friday afternoons and Saturday mornings, our stock of food was minimal. Already many people at supermarkets and queues were forming very rapidly. But they were orderly, there was no panic.

1200-1600: the death toll began to rise. Now they are talking about hundreds. On the next day, it wd be thousands.

1630-midnight: the meltdown of a nuclear plant feared. Lots of speculation by the media was going on, but finally, the government issued a statement saying that the meltdown was avoided.

0700: woke up to find out that there was another crisis in the nuclear plant looming....

A déjà vu or what? While watching the image of tens of thousands of Egyptians demonstrating in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez City is fascinating, this is nothing new. Well at least any Ptolemy kings or Roman governors of Egypt would find their country practically unchanged after 2000 years. In the Hellenic and Roman periods, demonstrations and street violence was quite common in Egypt. Especially what was happening in Alexandria in Roman times is well documented.

Of course, the nature of chaos in street in Egypt is different. Or, is it? It seems that one thing remains constant: Egypt still does not have a mature and functioning democracy and street demonstration is the only way people could express their political will, just as in Roman Alexandria.

The Roman Empire was no democracy. The very concept of democracy had not yet been established in political process of the Mediterranean world, save Athen’s attempt at full participatory democratic system for a brief period. But such a system can work only in a small community of free citizens. In a more cosmopolitan and complex world of Hellenism and Roman imperialism, democracy was unthinkable. It just would not work.

As the Roman world matured, economy became more complex and society diverse. Several political groups, bound by common or similar interests formed spontaneously, but they didn’t have what we might call ideology so they did not articulate their purposes in a language we can understand. Religion provided a sense of identity. There was a roughly four-way split inside Egyptian society: imperial Orthodox Church, representing the people who were gaining real power in the Empire; Egypt’s own brand of Christianity, which represented the native inhabitants of Egypt and would become Coptic Church; the Jews, made up of the intellectuals and international traders who considered themselves above the rest of the common folk; the Pagans, descendants of the earlier Roman aristocracy and a dying breed.

These people fought on streets of Alexandria, trying to gain dominance over city’s politics. This was a time when there was no such thing as election; therefore, they tried to win power by violence. But this was the closest thing they got to a democracy. No matter how despicable the whole thing might have looked to the intellectuals who wrote down some notable incidents, people simply didn’t have any other recourse to get their voices heard.

Sometimes, this street violence got really nasty. One incident recorded by writers of the day was the murder of Hypatia, a pagan philosopher and scientist. She was a highly educated upper class lady. Her father is Theon, a mathematician. She was unwittingly caught up in political struggle in Alexandria. She was probably killed because of her strong political influence over Alexandrians across social divide. She was respected as a well bred intellectual and someone with dignity. As such she was an obstacle to some low born politicians and religious leaders who were trying to intimidate the governor of Egypt. One day, a bunch of these people finally snapped, ambushed Hypatia on the street and murdered her.

At the beginning of 2010, I saw the film Agora (amazingly, Rachel Weiz the Mummy girl as Hypatia), which depicted this incident. Historical films are usually not very accurate as far as facts go, but, as for Hypatia’s murder, facts are rather obscure anyway. But the film had a clear message that bigotry and religious fanaticism stifled humanitarian and scientific advances (apparently, what Hypatia was about to discover was buried in history, until Johannes Kepler finally got it 1200 years later). The film missed the point of unique political development in Roman Egypt and that the street violence was a result of the lack of political system to provide a means of popular expression. What might look like fanaticism to us did not necessarily mean a dysfunctional society.

In this sense, Egypt hasn’t changed much. People there still cannot express their views freely. Apart from the chosen few, most people live in poverty. Yet Egyptian society has become much more complex and diverse than either the British administrators in the colonial days or the Egyptian ruling elite after Nasser’s revolution have ever envisaged. It is no longer a simple country of farmers living of the riches of the Nile and the Bedouins selling stuff for $1 apiece to tourists.

Plus international environment surrounding Egypt and new communication technology changed people dynamic a lot. We don’t know exactly how participants of mob violence were motivated, but the ancient Egyptians appeared to be less timid compared with the Egyptians today. Perhaps that’s due to differences between the loose imperial system of Rome and Mubarak’s regime.

In any case, what we are seeing is almighty helpful for us who study history of ancient and medieval Rome. The contemporary chroniclers described mob violence as a despicable degeneration of civilization, shaking the foundation of Roman civilisation from its roots; yet, what was happening is more of a case of people who were denied access to political process suddenly finding a way to put their demands and exert pressure on the power elite. Again, the film is wrong. The violence of Alexandria in the late fourth century did not signal the fall of Rome. Yet surely society was changing, and unless politics changes accordingly, what we might have is a cataclysmic upheaval, which, if handled badly, could lead to the collapse of half the domain you have. Rome survived the fifth century, but it lost the capital, City of Rome, to the Goths; in two centuries, Egypt itself was lost to the Arabs. After that, the Roman Empire was no longer a cosmopolitan empire that Caesar and Octavian had founded. You might call it a Roman state, and western historians perhaps righty dismiss it and insist that Rome ‘fell’ in 476CE. We can only hope that the ilk of the Al Qaeda would not play the role of the prophet Muhammad himself when the Arab world itself collapsed under the weight of popular anger.